Donald Trump's Ukraine Peace Initiative Constitutes a Gift to Putin

At first, Donald Trump seemed to take a strong approach on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "serious consequences" last August in case Russia's president continued hindering peace negotiations, Trump ultimately enacted considerable sanctions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This action seriously hindered the Russian leader's capacity to fund his war effort in the region.

Yet, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, which was drafted by both nations' representatives lacking Ukrainian or European input, Trump has apparently returned to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Aggression

This plan would essentially favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in danger. Although ringing statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the initiative in reality compromise that essential autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his corporate background, the former president continues to treat the war as a simple territorial dispute, as if ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will appease the ruler. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about controlling a destroyed region of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it stops functions as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that Putin's growing autocracy denies them.

Land Giveaways

While keeping in place the already divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would force Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unable to seize in over a ten years of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukrainian military defenses dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that are a essential obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, providing Putin a clear way to the capital should he subsequently choose to renew the war.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate renewed fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's proposal places no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, Trump's proposal asserts: "All extremist belief system and actions must be opposed and prohibited." As if to highlight this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a truce. However, the proposal places no condition that Putin risk his dictatorship by holding votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the proposal has Russia commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has broken equivalent accords in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a return of occupied territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should anyone believe Russia now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international protection assurances. Although the plan threatens a "strong joint military response" should Russia restart its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from unclear to concerning. The initiative would not just block the nation alliance membership but also prevent member states from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the security presence, likely led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from rebuilding his reduced military, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Response

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would provide the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "major, planned, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a military response. However unlike a capable national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, including Trump, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not