Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.